The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.
Daniel KahnemanNegotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
Daniel KahnemanCourage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
Daniel Kahneman