We fool ourselves into thinking that the spreadsheets that capture our financial projections are something different than what they are.

I use the term "fool's gold white space" to highlight a common problem for innovation. People see a market that doesn't exist, and assume that one should exist.

You still want to be thoughtful about what you do, no doubt, but you have to learn through trial-and-error experimentation as well.

It's one of the underappreciated skills required by an innovator - they have to be able to convince lots of people to do things that might not be fully rational (invest in the company, join something that is likely to fail, try a product they've never seen before), and if you can't tell a good story it is just very hard to make that happen.

The most important thing here is to largely ignore what customers say, and instead watch what they do or track where they spend money.

In my mind, so-called "cultures of innovation" really boil down to one word: curiosity.

I think it is only in hindsight that you can determine whether something is a mistake or not.